Pirates vs. Tigers/Braves : 5.20.11 - 5.25.11

Series: Pirates vs. Tigers & Braves, PNC Park, Pittsburgh, PA

 

TV, radio: Root Sports, WPGB-FM (104.7).

Facts/Reaction: Because I will be leaving for the Bahamas on Saturday morning I am going to try to preview the entire upcoming homestand in one entry.  I haven't done a traditional entry for about a week and for that I am sorry.  However, with the Pirates getting swept in Milwaukee (surprising, I know) and having one of their games rained out in Washington, I guess a traditional blog post isn't exactly what was needed.

Pitching Probables:

Friday, May 20 - Jeff Karstens (2-2, 3.19 ERA) vs. Brad Penny (4-3, 3.88 ERA)

Saturday, May 21 - Kevin Correia (5-4, 3.97 ERA) vs. Max Scherzer (6-0, 2.81 ERA)

Sunday, May 22 - Paul Maholm (1-6, 3.67 ERA) vs. Rick Porcello (3-2, 3.67 ERA)

Tuesday, May 24 - Charlie Morton (5-1, 2.62 ERA) vs. Jair Jurrjens (5-1, 1.80 ERA)

Wednesday, May 25 - James McDonald (3-3, 5.51 ERA) vs. Tim Hudson (4-3, 3.03 ERA)

Stats and Matchup: The Pirates begin the home stand with interleague play as the Detroit Tigers come into town.  Detroit is currently a game over .500 and has been playing much better as of late, winning 10 of their last 14.  It is always good to see the Tigers come into town since their entire coaching staff have connections to the Pirates.  Jim Leyland, Gene Lamont, Lloyd McClenden and my personal favorite Andy Van Slyke round out their Pittsburgh biased staff.  In addition to some good coaching the Buccos will also see some pretty good starting pitchers throughout the series, led by AL wins leader Max Scherzer (who is on my fantasy team).  As you probably know, it doesn't matter who the Pirates play in interleague, they just flat out stink.  Since interleague play began, the Pirates have the worst record of any team in Major League Baseball.  Obviously a stat like that and the fact that the Tigers are a hot team right now does not bode well for your Pittsburgh Baseball Club.

In addition to the Tigers visiting PNC Park this week, the Buccos will also face off against the Atlanta Braves.  The Braves enter the series with the Pirates with the best pitching staff in Major League baseball.  The Braves staff is 2nd in ERA at 2.91, 3rd in quality starts with 29 and 1st in WHIP and batting average against with numbers of 1.10 and .221 respectively.  During the series the Pirates will fortunately miss Derek Lowe and Tommy Hanson (who is also on my fantasy team) who are both having solid years.  However, the Pirates will face Tim Hudson and Jair Jurrjens which won't make things any easier.  The marquee matchup of the series has to be Tuesday night's contest when Charlie Morton will take the bump against Jair Jurrjens.  Both Morton and Jurrjens are 5-1 with sub 3.00 ERA's (Jurrjens is under 2.00).  This game should be low scoring and one would have to believe that it may just come down to which team can score on the other teams bullpen since neither of the starters will yield many runs.

Prediction: The Pirates look to continue their winning ways after sweeping the Reds in a 2 game series during the week in Cincinnati.  Taking into account the Pirates utter lack of success in interleague play and Detroit's recent success, I think the Pirates will only be able to win 1 of the 3 games against the Tigers.  In addition, neither of the matchups against the Braves really favor the Pirates since our best pitcher will be opposed by the Braves best pitcher.  So I think that it looks like a 2-3 homestand is right about where the Pirates should fall.  Obviously, anytime that you play sub .500 baseball at home there is reason for concern, but this is the Pirates and their upcoming opponents are 2 strong ball clubs who currently have more talent and experience than this year's Buccos.  In the end, that is what will keep the Pirates a team who is looking up at a .500 record.

Pirates @ Reds : 5.18.11

Preview/Thoughts:

Something a little bit different tonight with a blog entry for just a single game but I am going to try to do this for these two games in Cincinnati and then bring back the series preview for the homestand next week. The method to my madness is that a series preview for a 2 game series is a waste and with the Pirates having lost 6 in a row, I am going to change it up and hope the Bucs can get a victory tonight.

Pitching Matchup:

Charlie Morton (4-1, 3.13 ERA) vs. Bronson Arroyo (3-3, 3.78 ERA)

Matchup: In a pitching rematch from early April, Charlie Morton goes against ex-Pirate Bronson Arroyo.  It goes without saying that a repeat performance from Morton and the Pirates tonight would be exactly what the team needs after having lost 6 in a row.  In his last outing against the Reds, Morton threw a complete game, while scattering 5 hits and giving up only 1 run on 110 pitches.  The Pirates also collected 14 hits, 9 off of the starter Arroyo with Jose Tabata going 4 for 5 with a double and 3 singles while only scoring 1 of the Pirates 6 runs.  Jones and Walker also homered in the game with both coming off of the starter Arroyo.  The Pirates are obviously a different team right now than the one that went into Cincinnati and took 2 of 3 from the Reds in April.  They have lost 6 in a row and really haven't been able to score runs or sustain any type of offense since they peaked at 18-17 a week ago.  It is amazing how things completely change in a week.  On May 9 the Pirates had just beaten the Dodgers to get above .500 for the first time this late in a season since the Reagan administration.  Fans everywhere were abounding with joy and optimism.  How quickly two bad losses at home against the Dodgers, a not so surprising sweep at the hands of the Brewers and a tough outing for Paul Maholm can change the way people look at a team and a season.  At this point, optimism is no where to be found and many are wondering if the Pirates will even come close to sniffing .500 again this season.  I'm not ready to give up on this team just yet but finishing the road trip without at least one win will go a long way in convincing me that .500 is a fantasy.

Prediction: I honestly think that the day off in Washington gave the Pirates time to think about where they want their season to go and how, as a team they plan to get there.  I also think that the Charlie Morton that we have seen so far this year is the real Charlie Morton.  He is still learning and growing as a sinkerball pitcher but I do believe that as he gets a better feel of his pitch location, he will walk less and strikeout more.  Charlie "Electric Stuff" Morton is here to stay.  Pirates win, 6-2. 

Pirates @ Brewers : 5.13.11 - 5.15.11

Series: Pirates @ Brewers, Miller Park, Milwaukee, WI

TV, radio: Root Sports, WPGB-FM (104.7).

Facts/Reaction: The most recent homestand ended with the Pirates having a 3-3 record with them taking 2 of 3 from the Astros and losing 2 of 3 against the Dodgers with the last game of the series getting canceled last night due to rain.  The Pirates really weren't close in either of the last 2 games, getting crushed 10-3 one night and baffled by Hiroki Kuroda the next night in a 2-0 loss.  The Pirates are 1 game under .500 and now embark on a strange 3 city, 7 game road trip, with 3 games in Milwaukee, 2 in Washington and 2 in Cincinnati.  The Pirates are still pitching extremely well (considering their talent level) and have a 3.64 ERA, 11th best in the majors.  However, they continue to hit at a level that is, well ridiculous.  The team as a whole is hitting .233 and has scored a total of 135 which both rank 25th in the MLB.  This team will not hit this poorly all season, and hopefully the teams hitting arrives at respectable before the pitching comes down off the mountain. 

 

Pitching Probables:

Friday, May 13 - James McDonald (2-2, 5.65 ERA) vs. Yovani Gallardo (3-2, 5.11 ERA)
 

Saturday, May 14 - Jeff Karstens (2-1, 3.62 ERA) vs. Chris Narveson (1-3, 4.38 ERA)

Sunday, May 15 - Kevin Correia (5-3, 3.25 ERA) vs. Zack Greinke (1-1, 5.40 ERA)

Stats and Matchup: Well the Pirates the Pirates travel to Great Lakes country to take on the hated Milwaukee Brewers.  If you want to know my full feelings on the Brewers you can read this.  But basically it comes down to one simple fact...I despise them.  End of story.  With that being said let's keep going, we all know about the Pirates struggles at Miller Park, they are 2-28 in their last 30 games against Milwaukee with both of those wins coming last year in back to back late April games.  Currently, the Brewers are 16-21 and sit in 5th place in the NL Central.  As far as matchups go the Pirates need to find a way to not let Ryan Braun, Prince Fielder or Rickie Weeks beat them.  I know that sounds like a tall task and obviously if those three don't do anything against the Pirates pitchers than the Pirates will most likely have a very successful series.  So let's just say they need to stop 2 of the 3.  Both Ryan Braun and Prince Fielder have killed the Pirates in the past with Fielder hitting more home runs (22) against the Pirates than any other team while Braun has an OPS of .991 in his career against the PBC.  As far as the Pirates go I think that this is the series Pedro Alvarez breaks out.  Pedro is a career .308 hitter against the Brewers with 5 HR's and 10 RBI in 10 career starts.  Over the last few games he has been both squaring up the ball and driving it to all which to me points to Pedro finally coming around.  Let's hope I am right.   

Prediction: Obviously there are a ton of reasons why I don't like the Pirates chances this series against the Brewers.  For as much as I hate the Brewers, they absolutely own the Pirates in every way, shape and form.  You don't beat a team 28 of 30 times at home without just flat out having their number.  I don't see why this series will be any different.  Braun, Fielder and Weeks will find a way to beat us and more importantly the Pirates will find a way to continue being the Pirates and beat themselves.  Overall I think the Pirates can win 1 game in the series and if I had to guess it would probably be game 3.  Correia is 5-0 on the road this year and he gives the Pirates their best chance of winning.  Best case scenario, the Pirates find a way to win at least once, I know it's not much but in my eyes it would have to be considered a victory.

Dodger Series : An Intermediate Entry

Well so far the series has gone exactly the opposite of how I thought they would.  The Pirates get the win on Monday night with some luck, help from the umpires and clutch 8th inning hitting while they take the loss on Tuesday because of another weird outing at home from Kevin Correia and after that Mike Crotta and Chris Resop or Tweedle Dee and Tweedle Dum as I will call them here.  Correia was cruising through 5 2/3 innings much like he had early success against the Brewers in a home game earlier in April.  However, Correia got a little unlucky when Jamey Carroll singled and Aaron Miles bunted for a base hit.  After that he started leaving the ball up in the zone and before you knew it the score was 4-0.  McCutchen brought the Pirates to within two runs with his 6th home run of the season but then like I said earlier Dee and Dum entered to screw everything up and the Pirates staggered to a 10-3 loss.  The only thing to take away from the game is the fact that it looks like McCutchen is starting to come around.  His 3 for 4 day yesterday raised his season average to .242.  Hopefully it continues to climb because it most games, the Pirates go as Cutch goes.

Tonight, Paul Maholm will attempt to notch his second win of the year after getting ABSOLUTELY no run support over his past few starts.  Actually its a grand total of 3 runs in 2 starts but who's counting.  Also, Pedro, Jones and Overbay will return to the lineup tonight with the righty Kuroda on the hill for the Dodgers.  I think Jones will have another good game after going 2 for 3 with a double and an RBI in Game 1 of the series.  I also think that Pedro is starting to make some progress.  His at bats in his last start on Monday were alot better and he is starting to make more solid contact, something he just hasn't done this year.  To steal a few stats from the great Rocco Demaro (who got hosed when 104.7 let him go as the pre and post game host earlier this year), Pedro has half as many extra base hits this year (4.5% to 9.8% in 2010) and is hitting a ton more balls on the ground (54.5% to 9% in 2010).  Personally, I think the kid is thinking and pressing too much.  He is a talented hitter with a ton of raw power.  Just sit on the fastball and drive it somewhere.  There is no need for him to be swinging out of his shoes.  If he squares a ball up and puts all 235 lbs into it he is going to hit the ball a long way.  Allegheny River...be warned. 

Prediction: Pirates win, 5-2

Dodgers Series Pre-Preview : 5.9.11 - 5.12.11

I hope to get a full preview up tomorrow night but here is something to hold everyone (all 9 of you) over.  The reason for the abbreviated preview is that I dropped my computer and broke Amanda's flash drive, so not a whole lot of time to get a preview up before our kickball game (yeah, awesome) and Game 1 of the series.  So quickly, Thank God for winning 2 of 3 games against the NL Central basement dwellers in the Astros.  The Pirates were finally able to capitalize on an opportunity to beat a bad team, get to .500 and win at home, all things that they actually struggled to do last year and for that matter for the last 18 years.  The Pirates look to win another series at home and move above the .500 mark.  I think that that Pirates will be able to earn a split against the Dodgers with their most likely wins coming in Games 2 and 4 where Kevin Correia and Charlie Morton take the bump for the Buccos.  In my eyes, leaving Pittsburgh with a record of 19-19 would be considered somewhat of a success.  However, the Pirates next travel to Milwaukee where quite frankly, they suck, so the warm and fuzzy feeling people have from being over .500 may quickly go by the way side thanks to those douche's from Wisconsin.

Pirates vs. Astros : 5.6.11 - 5.8.11

Series: Pirates vs. Astros, PNC Park, Pittsburgh, PA

TV, radio: Root Sports, WPGB-FM (104.7).

Facts/Reaction: Abbreviated preview this time so let's get to it.  Great road trip, 4-2 with a good series win against the NL West leading Rockies.  Now home against the Astros and the Dodgers.  The Pirates need to prove that they are going in the right direction by beating a struggling team like the Astros.  Hopefully the Pirates can find a way to win both series and have a successful home stand. 

Pitching Probables:

Monday, May 2 - Paul Maholm (1-4, 3.68 ERA) vs. Wandy Rodriquez (1-3, 4.00 ERA)
 

Tuesday, May 3 - Charlie Morton (3-1, 3.52 ERA) vs. Bud Norris (2-1, 3.03 ERA)

Wednesday, May 4 - James McDonald (2-2, 6.75 ERA) vs. J.A. Happ (2-4, 6.23 ERA)

 
 

Stats and Matchup: Well the Pirates already lost the first game of the series last night which obviously isn't a good way to start the homestand.  Yes, the bullpen blew the win for Maholm last night and we all know that lead off walks will kill a team, especially when they are basically doubles with a guys like Michael Bourn on first who this season is 12 for 12 on stolen bases.  Although the bullpen (which has been good, struggled) there aren't many times that you will win a game when you have 2 runs and 5 hits, with 2 of the hits coming from recent Angel outcast Brandon Wood.  The Pirates as a team are batting .232 and only two Pirates regulars are hitting above .263 with the rest of them, including McCutchen, Tabata and Alvarez hitting below .233.  Not good.  I would have to say that this team is currently overachieving with the lack of offense they are getting and the surprisingly good pitching.  I have a bad feeling that the pitching will come back to earth before the hitting gets on the right track.  If that happens we could see one of the Pirates signature losing streaks.  Lord, please let the bats heat up.  Please.

Prediction:  Pirates lose Game 1, not a prediction since it already happened.  I think the Pirates will win game 2 with Charlie Morton on the mound and Game 3 is a toss up depending on which James McDonald decides to come to the ballpark on Sunday.  The Pirates really need to show the fans in the stands that they are a decent ball club. Winning on the road is great and all, but this deer in the headlights crap at home has to stop or they risk losing all 17 of us fans who actually care.

You Play to Win the Game...

Dear Pirates,

When you are down 3-2 with no outs in the 8th inning and a runner on 1st after a lead off walk there are some things that you just shouldn't do.  One of those things is making your best hitter (OK so not at the moment but I don't think anyone would argue with me that Cutch is the best player on the team), Andrew McCutchen bunt.  Let the kid swing the bat and make things happen.  Playing for the tie sucks and in the words of the great Herm Edwards, "You play to win the game."

Sincerely,

The Only Fan Who Gives a Damn

Pirates @ Padres : 5.2.11 - 5.4.11

Series: Pirates @ Padres, Petco Park, San Diego, CA

TV, radio: Root Sports, WPGB-FM (104.7).

Facts/Reaction: What a good way to start a road trip.  Taking 2 out of 3 from the NL West leading Rockies should really be something the Pirates can build on.  These same Rockies that came into PNC Park a few short weeks ago and embarrassed the Pirates on opening day with a pitcher no one has ever heard of.  The Pirates are now 8-7 on the road and have almost half of their total road wins from last year.  The team is doing the exact opposite thing that they did last year in that winning at home was something they did with regularity and now it seems winning at home has become a bit of an enigma and winning on the road is well...much easier.

Pitching Probables:

Monday, May 2 - James McDonald (1-2, 7.66 ERA) vs. Aaron Harang (4-1, 3.90 ERA)

Tuesday, May 3 - Jeff Karstens (2-1, 3.57 ERA) vs. Mat Latos (0-4, 4.98 ERA)

Wednesday, May 4 - Kevin Correia (4-2, 2.90 ERA) vs. Clayton Richard (1-2, 3.82 ERA)

Stats and Matchup: The Pirates now move onto San Diego to take on the NL West bottom feeders in the Padres.  The Padres are 11-18 this year and are struggling to produce on offense in anyway.  They are currently, 29th in runs, 30th in batting average, 29th in on base percentage and 30th in slugging percentage.  Needless to say, they have the worst offense in baseball.  Hopefully the Pirates can find a way to get to their good group of pitchers early in games en route to potentially taking 2 of 3 in the series and returning home with a 4-2 road trip.

Prediction:  If the Pirates can take game 1 from the Padres against Aaron Harang who is 4-1 with a 3.90 ERA than the I think that they can at least win 2 of 3 and maybe even get their first series sweep of the season.  By the way since this blog update is late, the Pirates did get to Harang early and beat the Padres 4-3 on Monday night.  Now winning 2 of 3 isn't such a lofty goal and with any luck the Buccos first sweep of the season could be complete by late Thursday night.