Tuesday, April 19, 2011

Pirates @ Marlins : 4.19.11 - 4.21.11

Series: Pirates @ Marlins, Sun Life Stadium, Miami, FL

TV, radio: Root Sports, WPGB-FM (104.7).

Facts/Reaction: Well let me say this...there are many times when it comes to sports that I am just flat out wrong.  Normally, I have predicted that my team will win more games, series or championships than they actually do.  A few days ago I said that the Buccos would win only one game in their series with the Reds if they were lucky and as they travel to South Beach to play the Marlins they are 3-1 on the trip after winning their series against the Reds.  Let me tell you, being wrong never felt so good.

Pitching Probables:

Tuesday, April 19 - Paul Maholm (0-2, 2.33 ERA) vs. Josh Johnson (2-0, 1.35 ERA)
Wednesday, April 20 - Charlie Morton (2-0, 1.64 ERA) vs. Ricky Nolasco (1-0, 4.05 ERA)
Thursday, April 21 - James McDonald (0-1, 7.47 ERA) vs. Chris Volstad (0-1, 5.59 ERA)
 
Stats and Matchup: The Pirates are 7-3 on the road this season and have won all three road series.  Last year the Bucs won 17 games and 4 series on the road.  Last season the Pirates played 8 games against the Marlins and were 2-6.  I am not sure why they struggled so much against the Fish but then again they were 57-105 so really there weren't many teams that they didn't struggle against.  As far as match ups go, Paul Maholm comes to mind and specifically his matchup against Hanley Ramirez.  Now I know Hanley is really good and rakes against just about everyone, but against Maholm he is a career .375 hitter with 2 HR and 2 RBI.  On the Pirates side the one to watch has to be Matt Diaz against the Marlins starting pitching staff.  If you remember Diaz spent the last 5 seasons with the NL East Atlanta Braves and during that time he killed Florida pitching to the tune of a .376 average with 10 HR, 10 2B and 28 RBI in 42 career starts.  The Pirates face all right handed pitchers and normally Jones gets those starts, however, Jones has struggled against Florida in his career hitting only .139 in 10 career games.  I look for Diaz to get at least 1 start in the series and any pinch hitting opportunity that arises.

Prediction:  The Pirates beat the highest scoring team in baseball over the weekend by scoring runs in bunches and more importantly all be it surprisingly by pitching lights out with complete games from both Morton and Correia.  They won't need pitching quite so good to beat the Marlins but will need a great outing from Maholm in order for the Pirates to beat Josh Johnson and the Marlins in Game 1 of the series.  Taking into account the lack of success the Pirates have had against the Marlins in the past few years and the fact that Josh Johnson will most likely beat the Buccos in Game 1, I think the Pirates win 1 out of 3 in South Beach and return home to face the Nationals on Friday with a 4-3 record on the road trip.

No comments:

Post a Comment