Pirates vs. Red Sox : 6.24.11

Programming Note: Since this is a pretty big series with each game this weekend expected to be a sellout, I have decided to preview each game/matchup individually.  He we go...

Stats: The Boston Red Sox roll into town this weekend for what is sure to be one of the biggest series' in PNC Park history.  The series is of added importance because the Pirates are actually playing competitive baseball.  The Pirates somehow sit at .500 with a less than stellar offense and absolutely no power production from any of the corner infield or outfield positions.  As of today the Pirates sit 3 games behind the 1st place Brewers and for the first time since 1997 are in the division title race in June.  The Red Sox on the other hand wield the best offense in baseball and are ranked 1st in runs, batting average, on base percentage and slugging percentage.  They have won 14 of 18 games and are currently in 1st place in the American League East with a 1/2 game lead over the New York Yankees. 

Pitching Probables:

Paul Maholm (3-8, 3.29 ERA) vs. Jon Lester (9-3, 3.70 ERA)

Matchup: Look at the above pitching matchup.  Now, everyone including myself would say that Jon Lester is the better pitcher.  He is 70-28 in his career with a 3.57 ERA in 6 seasons.  He has been an all-star and has thrown a no hitter and oh yeah he beat cancer, so he is pretty much the man.  With all that being said, Paul Maholm has been the better pitcher this year.  Maholm has a lower ERA (3.29 to 3.70), a lower WHIP (1.16 to 1.27) and a lower batting average against (.221 to .242).  I know that Lester pitches in the American League East which has much better teams than the National League Central but all of the metrics that I have pointed out above show that Maholm has just been flat out better.  The only metric that Lester is better than Maholm in is record (9-3 to 3-8) and that is solely a product of the fact of run support.  In his 15 starts, Lester is getting an average of 6.7 runs of support from his Boston teammates.  In contrast, Maholm is receiving just 2.60 runs of support and has received more than 3 runs of support only twice.

Prediction: Tonight's game, not to mention the entire series will come down to whether or not the Pirates offense can keep up with the Red Sox.  Boston will score runs.  They average 5.41 run/game so the Pirates will have to do their best to keep up with them.  Neither pitcher tonight has ever faced the other team and only a few hitters have at bats against both Maholm and Lester so it is hard to predict who will be a factor.  With that being said, I think that McCutchen and Walker are going to carry the team tonight.  Walker will be batting from the right side and I fully expect him to be locked in and ready to go against Lester.  As for the Red Sox, I can tell you that without a doubt David Ortiz will not hurt the Pirates tonight because he isn't in the lineup since the game is being played by National League (aka the "best" league) rules.  The only way we will see Big Papi is in a pinch hitting situation.  Having said that, I think the Pirates will battle tonight but ultimately won't score enough runs for Paul Maholm and against Jon Lester.  Red Sox win 6-1.